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In the very first month of 2026, Vietnam’s coffee exports reached $1.08 billion with a volume of 224,300 tons, marking the second time the industry has exceeded the billion-dollar milestone in a single month. However, global price pressures are emerging as overall supply increases.
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January 2026 Strong Growth in Both Volume and Value
According to data from the Customs Department, in January 2026:
- Export volume reached 224,300 tons
- Export turnover reached $1.08 billion
- Up 22.6% in volume and 14.1% in value compared to December 2025
- Up 56.4% in volume and 39.5% in value compared to January 2025
Reclaiming the billion-dollar mark less than a year after the March 2025 record demonstrates that global demand for Vietnamese coffee remains robust.
Notably, the nearly 40% year-on-year increase in export value indicates that not only did volume rise, but average export prices have also remained at relatively favorable levels compared to previous years.
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Why Are Coffee Prices Declining?
Despite strong export performance, domestic coffee prices in the Central Highlands are currently around VND 93,000 per kilogram, lower than earlier periods. Several combined factors are driving this decline.
Global Supply Pressure
According to forecasts from Brazil’s National Supply Company, Brazil’s 2026–2027 coffee crop could reach 66.2 million bags, up 17.1% from the previous season due to favorable weather conditions.
As the world’s largest coffee producer, Brazil’s projected output increase immediately influences global price expectations. Anticipation of abundant supply has already placed significant downward pressure on international markets.
In addition, exports from Vietnam and Indonesia have also increased recently, adding more supply to the global market.
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A Stronger U.S. Dollar
Coffee is priced in U.S. dollars. When the USD strengthens, import costs rise for many countries, which can dampen demand in futures markets. This directly contributes to short-term price pressure.
Is Export Growth Sustainable?
Achieving over $1 billion in exports in the first month of the year highlights the strong capacity of Vietnam’s coffee sector. However, sustainability will depend on three key factors:
- Actual production levels in Brazil
- The trend of the U.S. dollar and global financial markets
- Consumption demand in the EU, the U.S., and Asian markets
If global supply expands significantly in the coming quarters, prices may continue to adjust. Conversely, if demand remains stable, price levels are likely to rebalance.
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Opportunities for Processing Enterprises and Domestic Brands
Price volatility can create opportunities for companies focusing on deep processing and brand development. Rather than exporting raw beans, increasing value through roasting, instant coffee, and specialty products can help stabilize profit margins.
In the domestic market, brands such as Goce Coffee are expanding high-quality processed coffee lines, emphasizing standards compliance and traceability.
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Today’s consumers are increasingly concerned not only with price, but also with quality, origin stories, and sustainability.
Outlook for Vietnam’s Coffee Industry in 2026
The year 2026 may serve as a pivotal moment for Vietnam’s coffee industry. January’s export momentum provides a strong foundation, yet price volatility will continue to test businesses’ adaptability.
With effective risk management in pricing and exchange rates, Vietnam’s coffee sector can maintain its solid position in global agricultural trade.
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Market fluctuations are inevitable. Long-term brand value and sustainable quality remain the true determinants of competitive advantage.
If you are interested in high-quality processed coffee with clear traceability and a sustainable development orientation, explore the product lines at Goce Coffee.
Stay updated with coffee market news, pricing trends, and brand development strategies on the Goce Coffee website to seize opportunities in 2026.
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