Rising Coffee Prices – How Does It Affect the Morning Cup of Coffee for Vietnamese People?

A morning cup of coffee has become an irreplaceable habit for millions of Vietnamese. However, as coffee prices continuously hit new records, many are asking: Will this habit remain unchanged in the near future? This article analyzes the market outlook and the journey of coffee beans from the farm to your desk.

Coffee prices today and market context

On September 16, 2025, global coffee prices surged, reaching 4,817 USD/ton on the ICE exchange.

• In the U.S., retail coffee prices hit a record 8.87 USD/pound, up 21% from the same period in 2024 – the steepest increase in 28 years.
• In Vietnam, coffee prices in the Central Highlands ranged from 119,600 – 120,000 VND/kg, slightly down by 200–500 VND/kg compared to yesterday but still at a record-high level.

This reflects a new price floor, directly impacting both consumers and Vietnamese coffee businesses.

Why are coffee prices rising?

The surge is not caused by a single factor but rather the combined effect of supply, demand, policy, and logistics costs.

International factors

• Supply shortage:
  • Brazil suffers from drought-induced poor harvests.
  • Vietnam faces climate change impacts, reducing output.
  • Global coffee inventories are at their lowest levels in years.
• U.S. tariff policy:
  • Import tariffs: Brazil 50%, Vietnam 20%, Colombia 10%.
  • Coffee imports from Brazil fell by 75% in August 2025, forcing major brands like Folgers and Starbucks to repeatedly raise prices.
• Logistics costs soaring:
  • Shipping from Brazil to the U.S. now takes 20 extra days due to container shortages and rising fuel prices.
  • This is the main reason U.S. retail coffee prices have risen at the fastest pace in 14 years.
• Sustainable consumption demand:
  • Consumers increasingly care about origin and sustainability certifications (Rainforest Alliance, Fair Trade).
  • Global coffee consumption continues to grow 2–3% annually, while supply struggles to keep up.

Domestic factors

• Coffee prices in Đắk Lắk, Gia Lai, Lâm Đồng remain above 119,000 VND/kg, 40% higher than in 2022–2023.
• Vietnam’s coffee exports in the first 8 months of 2025 reached over 5.6 billion USD, surpassing 2024’s record.
• The entire 2024–2025 crop year is forecast to hit 8 billion USD, reaffirming Vietnam’s position as the world’s second-largest coffee exporter.
• Vietnamese companies are expanding markets to Europe, Japan, and South Korea, reducing reliance on the U.S.

Impact on Vietnamese morning coffee habits

The big question: “With rising prices, will Vietnamese people drink less coffee?”
Reality shows: the habit remains, but the way of drinking changes.

• Office workers:
  • Instead of going to cafés every morning, many brew coffee at home using instant coffee or drip coffee bags.
  • More cost-efficient and time-saving.
• Students:
  • Prefer small packs with affordable prices.
  • Ready-to-drink cans and 2-in-1, 3-in-1 instant coffee are popular.
• Middle-aged consumers:
  • Still loyal to their favorite cafés, but tend to choose smaller, budget-friendly shops over big chains.
  • Prefer traditional drip coffee at reasonable prices.

Impact on cafés and businesses

• Small cafés:
  • Struggle with pressure to raise prices.
  • Some reduce serving sizes instead of increasing prices drastically.
• Large chains:
  • Introduce morning combos or promotions like “buy 5 get 1 free.”
  • Adjust cup sizes to balance costs.
• Manufacturers & packaged coffee companies:
  • Golden opportunity for instant coffee and drip coffee bags.
  • Products are convenient, affordable, and cater to the growing demand for home and office consumption.

Cultural perspective – Coffee as a “spiritual specialty”

Despite rising prices, the morning coffee cup remains a “ritual to start the day” for Vietnamese people.
It’s not just a drink but also:

• A moment of reflection.
• A way to connect with friends and colleagues.
• A cultural symbol, just like tea in Japan or wine in Europe.

Many are willing to cut expenses elsewhere, but their morning coffee is hard to replace. That is why coffee, regardless of price volatility, still holds a vital place in Vietnamese life.

Smart choices with Goce Coffee

Rising coffee prices bring both challenges and opportunities. Vietnamese consumers may change their drinking style, but their passion for coffee never fades.

At Goce Coffee, you can find many options that suit every taste:

• Instant coffee – quick and convenient
  • Gentlemen Coffee 3in1: A strong coffee line for men, rich flavor from pure coffee beans. One cup a day keeps you energized and ready for challenges.
  • Ladies Coffee 3in1: Instant coffee with milk for women – sweet, smooth, and irresistibly aromatic.
  • Pure Coffee 2in1: Strong black coffee, awakening and refined. Perfect for slow sipping to capture its full elegance.
  • Salted Coffee: A unique blend of bitter – sweet – salty, leaving a creamy aftertaste, becoming a hot trend among the youth.

• Drip coffee bags – preserving traditional flavors
  • Ladies Coffee Drip: A mix of coffee and milk, offering a gentle, elegant, and subtly sweet experience from the very first sip.
  • Gentlemen Coffee Drip: A blend of Arabica and Robusta, rich and authentic. A modern brewing method that saves time while delivering allure and creativity.

Even when prices fluctuate, make a smart coffee choice with Goce Coffee – true to your taste, convenient, and filled with positive energy for a brand-new day.